The Bezos Earth Foundation and RMI just released (on Dec 20) a great new strategy document for the next 25 years of CDR. Kudos to Brad Ack, Jack Andreasen, Nikki Batchelor, Kyle Clark-Sutton, Julio Friedmann, Maddie Hall, Jason Hochman, Charlotte Levy, Jan Mazurek, Sara Nawaz, Frances Wang, and other CDRANet members for their work on this report.

There’s a lot to consider here. Potentially, this is exactly the kind of framework the CDRANet community might want to consider building on (or drawing on for inspiration) as we develop our policy recommendation.

Here’s an edited version of the summary created by Notebook LM:

1. Introduction and Purpose

This document outlines a comprehensive roadmap for scaling technological Greenhouse Gas Removal (GHGR) to achieve a target of 10 Gigatons (Gt) of CO2 removal per year by 2050, while also advancing the science of non-CO2 GHGR. The roadmap emphasizes a global, systems-level approach that integrates technological solutions with socio-behavioral considerations, financial and market mechanisms, and effective policy and regulation. The document is designed to be a tool for aligning actions and investments across sectors and stakeholders including government, industry, researchers, communities, and funders. It also stresses the importance of justice, equity and community engagement in the nascent GHGR field.

2. Goals

The roadmap sets two distinct goals:

  1. CDR: To achieve 10 Gt of durable, technological CO2 removal per year by 2050. This requires scaling existing approaches and integrating new ones.
  2. Non-CO2 GHGR: To advance the basic science of non-CO2 removal to a point where decisions about future development and deployment can be made by the early 2030s. A development rather than deployment goal is set for this area as it is still in early stages.

3. Thematic Areas for Stakeholder Action

The roadmap identifies four key thematic areas for stakeholder engagement:

  1. Science and Technology (S&T): Focuses on R&D, technology development and refinement, and improving MRV standards. It emphasizes collaboration and sharing of data and outcomes.
  2. Socio-Behavioral and Communities (SB&C): Ensures that GHGR technologies are deployed responsibly, ethically, and with social impacts in mind and with input from potentially impacted communities. It includes the consideration of cultural factors, community engagement, and justice. It is intended to ensure that GHGR communities shape GHGR deployment to their benefit.
  3. Finance and Markets (F&M): Addresses the economic and commercial aspects of GHGR. This includes securing funding and investment, developing market mechanisms, and scaling demand through voluntary, compliance and public procurement mechanisms.
  4. Policy and Regulation (P&R): Uses public governance mechanisms to advance the field, including regulatory clarity, funding for R&D, government-backed markets, and equitable deployment. It includes establishing clear permitting structures for GHGR.

4. GHGR Technology Initiatives

The roadmap outlines initiatives for five major technology areas:

  1. Air CDR: Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies, focusing on cost reduction and large scale deployment.
  2. Ocean CDR: Approaches such as microalgae and macroalgae growth and sinking, alkalinity enhancement, and electrochemical methods. Includes R&D on measurement and impacts.
  3. Land CDR: Focuses on biochar, bioliquids, biomass direct storage, and microalgae in ponds. Emphasizes the need for strong life cycle assessments and measurement standards.
  4. Rock CDR: Utilizes alkaline minerals to react with CO2, accelerating natural processes. Emphasizes the need for global inventories of alkaline feedstocks and pilot-scale testing.
  5. Non-CO2 GHGR: Focuses on advancing scientific understanding of the technical feasibility, safety, and scalability of technologies that remove methane and nitrous oxide.

5. Decadal Initiatives (2024-2050)

The roadmap divides the scaling process into three decadal periods:

  1. 2024-2030 (Emergence): Focused on R&D, demonstrations, establishing a broad portfolio of GHGR technologies, clarifying safety and MRV standards, and building market infrastructure. It establishes an initial target of removing approximately 285 Mt CO2 per year.
  2. 2030-2040 (Adoption): Focuses on the widespread adoption of GHGR technologies and the development of the industry at a global scale. Requires reducing costs, building infrastructure and supply chains, and establishing stable, scaled demand through policy, including publicly mandated procurement of approximately 4.5 Gt CO2 per year.
  3. 2040-2050 (Expansion): Focused on scaling GHGR to 10 Gt CO2 per year. Requires further technology scaling, global deployment, international standards, and integration into decarbonized industrial systems. By this point, GHGR should operate efficiently and inconspicuously.

6. Cross-Cutting Themes and Key Enablers

  • Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV): Critical for ensuring the integrity and accountability of GHGR projects. The roadmap highlights the need for clear standards, third-party verification, and continual improvement of MRV methods.
  • Public Procurement: The document recognizes that voluntary carbon markets are not sufficient to reach the required scale of GHGR and thus advocates for publicly mandated procurement, created through policy instruments such as compliance markets, tax incentives, and regulations.
  • Community Engagement: A key focus throughout the roadmap. It emphasizes the importance of engaging communities early, incorporating local knowledge, and ensuring that GHGR projects benefit local populations.
  • Just Transition: The roadmap emphasizes the opportunity to build a new industry in a way that is fair and equitable.
  • International Coordination: Essential for establishing standards, markets, and financial mechanisms at a global level and ensuring global inclusion.

7. Challenges and Uncertainties

The roadmap also acknowledges several uncertainties and challenges:

  • The exact amount of GHGR required: This depends on future climate scenarios and the speed of decarbonization.
  • The limitations of each technology: Land based approaches might be limited by sustainable biomass supply and mineral based by available alkaline minerals.
  • The practical and responsible limits of deployment: The scale of deployment required will make GHGR the largest commodity on Earth.
  • Measurability: The ability to accurately measure and verify removals, especially for open system approaches
  • Effectiveness of non-CO2 GHGR: Whether non-CO2 gases can be removed effectively

 

Here are observations as we consider this work:

  1. The Bezos/RMI report isn’t a policy document but a possible strategy outline. So as CDRANet works to develop a policy, it may refer to this document for guidance on what strategy to follow, but not necessarily what the policy itself should look like. And,
  2. The elephant in the room (not covered in this report) is the assumption that 2050 is indeed the year by which we should be removing 10 gigatons of CO2 annually. Granted, it’s going to take time to do CDR at scale—time for research, piloting, best practices development, permitting and construction, market development, and so on. So even getting to 10Gty by 2050 may be unrealistically optimistic. But what if we need more, and/or what if we need to reach scale sooner? The latest numbers suggest that global temperatures could top 3C over historic levels by 2050, not 1.5C. Will anyone be talking about careful and thoughtful approaches to CDR 10 years from now as 2C-fueled climate catastrophes start to rapidly escalate—migration, drought, sea rise, acidification, etc.? In this environment, we may become 90% focused on adaptation measures (including seawall construction, air conditioning construction, crop movement, and migration management), forest fire prevention, and emergency climate management ideas like solar radiation management and refreezing the arctic, because managing the immediate crises will sap every bit of our time, resources and attention. So, is a 25 year ramp-up for CDR what the world needs, or should we (can we) cut this in half somehow—by mobilizing government action and investment, developing pilot solutions in parallel, accelerating piloting and permitting, mandating data sharing, and more? Doing as much as possible now might be key, while we still have time.